As of Sunday, Vice President Kamala Harris, the likely Democratic presidential nominee, leads former President Donald Trump in this year’s tight election in three major national polling aggregators.
The polls come two weeks after President Joe Biden’s unprecedented decision to withdraw from the race and endorse Harris. Since then, she has garnered widespread support from the party and is poised to lead the Democratic ticket in November.
With the biggest lead for Harris, FiveThirtyEight’s national aggregator poll puts her 1.6 percentage points above Trump in the national election, with 45.3 percent to Trump’s 43.7 percent.
Aggregate polls are constantly updated as new polling data is added, shifting the averages in real time.
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Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin presidential forecast shows Harris with a slightly narrower lead, at 45.5 percent compared to Trump’s 44.1 percent. According to the model, Harris pulled ahead of Trump on July 31, by 0.2 percent, and has been slowly increasing her lead since.
Race to the WH, shows the smallest lead for Harris, just .2 percent above Trump. It shows Harris garnering 47.3 percent and Trump 47.1 percent. If third-party candidates are included, the forecast shows Harris pulling ahead at 44.7 percent, Trump at 43.7 percent, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 5.7 percent, and Cornel West at 0.7 percent.
However, three other national aggregate polls show Trump leading Harris, such as The New York Times, which finds Trump ahead of Harris by 1 point, 48 to 47 percent. However, when third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is included in the poll, Harris and Trump drop to an even 44 percent.
Similarly, The Hill’s aggregation, based on 97 polls, shows Trump leading Harris by 1.1 percentage points, with 47.6 percent to her 46.5 percent, while RealClearPolitics shows Trump with a 0.8 percent lead, at 47.7 percent to Harris’ 46.9 percent.
All of the aggregate polls reveal a nail-biting presidential election where candidates are constantly inching up or down based on new poll inclusions.
Newsweek reached out to Harris and Trump’s campaign for comment.
The presidential election is determined by Electoral College votes. Candidates must secure 270 electoral votes to win the presidency, which is not always accurately reflected in national aggregate polls, as state-specific victories are necessary to secure electoral votes.
Individual polls of battleground states, which often carry a significant number of electoral votes, also show a tight race between Trump and Harris.
A recent CBS News/YouGov survey of 3,102 registered voters, conducted between July 30 and August 2, shows Harris leading in one battleground state, Trump leading in three, and a tie in three other swing states.
