A Republican pollster has said Vice President Kamala Harris is “even or up” in key swing states, and could possibly win them over after the DNC.
In an interview with CNN on Wednesday, Frank Luntz discussed the recent shift in the polls in Harris’ favor, what voters in his focus groups are saying, and her strengths and weaknesses as a candidate that could ultimately determine the election result.
When discussing Harris’ lead in swing states, Luntz said, “There’s been a shift over the last four weeks, and that shift is significant. You see it in the polls, you see it in the focus groups, Joe Biden was definitively losing those states by a narrow margin, but now she is definitively even or up in the key states Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.”
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He continued, “The difference is so miniscule between Trump and Harris, but that’s why these two nights, tonight and tomorrow night, are so important. She’s seeking to define herself not just her personality, not just character traits and attributes, but on the issues that matter most to the voters.”
When discussing Harris’ strengths in character but weaknesses on issues, Luntz said, “The next 48 hours will determine how much of a bump she can get and whether or not she leaves the convention with a meaningful advantage over the former president.”
Luntz is a long-time pollster, author, and political commentator who has previously contributed to Fox News, CBS, and numerous other outlets, and is primarily known for his testing of language in focus groups.
He has also weighed in on several international elections, running focus groups in the UK, Australia, and Ireland.
Recent analysis from FiveThirtyEight has shown that Harris is leading Trump in swing states including Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada, whereas President Joe Biden trailed behind Trump in six out of the seven battleground states when he was the nominee.
The poll tracker also showed that Harris and Trump are tied in North Carolina, and Trump maintains the lead in Georgia.
Nationally, FiveThirtyEight polling averages show that Harris is ahead of Trump, 47 percent to 43 percent.
Speaking of the gender gap amongst voters, Luntz said, “It’s significant. I tell people that there are going to be more divorces in the next two months, three months, than any time in any political history.”
He continued, “Women are looking for someone who understands them, someone who speaks for them, they really want their voice to be heard.”
The most recent New York Times and Siena College poll confirmed Luntz’ claims about the gender gap, as nearly 2,000 responses from respondents from Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin indicated that Harris maintained a 21-point lead over Trump with women.
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