Donald Trump has overtaken Vice President Kamala Harris in the key wing state of Michigan, according to a poll.
An MIRS and Michigan News Source statewide poll of 709 likely voters, conducted on September 30 by Mitchell Research & Communications, shows the former president with a 1-point lead over Harris in a direct match-up (49 percent to 48).
When the poll is expanded to a full presidential ballot of eight candidates, Trump and Harris are tied 47 percent.
The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
“That Trump and Harris continue to be statistically tied is further evidence of how tight this race ultimately is going to be,” said Steve Mitchell, president of Mitchell Research & Communications.
A previous Mitchell Research & Communications poll released on September 13 showed Harris and Trump were tied in Michigan on 48 percent. Harris was ahead by 1 point in a full presidential candidate ballot (47 percent to 46).
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Newsweek has contacted Trump’s and Harris’ campaign teams for comment via email.
When broken down further, the latest Michigan poll reveals (52 percent to 37). In the eight-person ballot, Trump’s lead among independents is reduced to 7 points (44 percent to 37).
The independent and undecided voting demographic will be particularly vital in Michigan, one of the battleground states that could determine who wins the 2024 election overall.
Harris’ clearest path to victory in November is to win the three so-called blue wall swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, barring any shock results elsewhere. Harris would need to win the one Electoral College vote in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District in this scenario, with polls suggesting she is on course to do so.
Trump could win the 2024 election overall by beating Harris in the Sun Belt swing states of Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and flipping Michigan.
President Joe Biden won all three of the blue wall battlegrounds during his 2020 election victory, beating Trump in Michigan by 2.8 points.
Trump beat Hillary Clinton in Michigan in 2016 by 0.3 points—the first time the state had voted for a Republican candidate since 1988.
Forecasters and polling aggregators suggest that Harris has the slight edge over Trump in Michigan with one month to go until Election Day.
The polling average from FiveThirtyEight says Harris has a 1.6-point lead over Trump (48 percent to 46.4) as of October 3.
RealClearPolitics’ polling average gives Harris a narrow lead of 0.7 points (48.3 percent to 47.6).
The forecast model from Decision Desk HQ/The Hill says Harris has a 62 percent chance of winning Michigan in November.
